Evolution of Statistics in India

 While statistics have been collected and used in the Indian subcontinent from antiquity, major changes in collection and use took place during the British period (1757-1947) in Indian history. Some of this change was due to new imperial needs, but much of it occurred indirectly as a result of western education and a spirit of scientific curiosity and experimentation. Interest in rapid social, economic and technological development added a new dimension after India's independence in 1947. Half a century after that momentous event seems a good time to take stock of how Statistics has developed in India. The architect of modern statistical methods in the Indian subcontinent was undoubtedly P.C. Mahalanobis, but he was helped by a galaxy of very distinguished scientists that included C.R. Rao, R.C. Bose, S.N. Roy, S.S. Bose, K.R. Nair, D.B. Lahiri and many others. There were also others like P.V. Sukhatme, and V.G. Panse who worked independently of Mahalanobis. Our history is a history of some of these persons as well as a history of institutions and interactions between persons and institutions. ISS coaching in Lucknow in this article gives an exhaustive discussion on the history and evolution of Statistics in India.

Historical Background

Early Origins

It is interesting and illuminating to note that statistical knowledge and probabilistic ideas were attributed to the kings and rulers mentioned in the great Indian epic, the Mahabharat. That the concept of probability was recognized in the Indian-Jaina philosophy is clear from the writings of Bhadrabahu, who lived during the period 433-357 B.C., on syadvada or 'the assertion of possibilities' (syat = 'may be', vada = 'assertion').

Moghul Period

Let us take a leap forward to the Moghul period. An important masterpiece written by Abul Fazal during this period was Ain-i-Akbari. Abul Fazl was "regarded as a statistician, no details from the revenues of a province to the cost of a pine-apple, from the organisation of an army and the grades and duties of nobility to the shape of the candlestick and the price of a curry-comb, are beyond his microscopic and patient investigation.” Revenue guides known as Dastur-ul-amls, maintained during Akbar's period, continued to be compiled even during the times of Shah Jahan and Aurangzeb. Zawabit-i-Alamgiri or the regulations of Emperor Aurangzeb which was prepared in 1690 was a good chronicle of statistics.

Statistical System in British India

A government officer named A. Shakespeare published in 1848 the first census relating to the area and revenue of each pargana (district) in North-West (N.W.) Provinces. A small department of statistics was started in the India House in 1847 by Col. Sykes. In 1853, the department released the first series of statistical papers on India. The first systematic attempt to ascertain the whole population of India by 'actually counting heads' was made between 1867 and 1872.

Impressed by the trend in statistical activities during the 1800s, the Secretary of state ordered the Governor-General in Council to prepare a 'comprehensive and coordinated scheme of statistical survey' for each of the twelve great provinces of then British India and Dr W.W. Hunter was appointed as DirectorGeneral of Statistics in India in 1869 to carry out this work. In 1870, Hunter gave a plan for an Imperial Gazetter of India. Thus the Statistical Account of Bengal (present Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Orissa) was published in 20 volumes under Hunter's supervision. For each district, there were details on topographical data, ethnic divisions and creeds, agricultural situation, commerce, working of district administration and finally the sanitary and medical aspects and such meteorological data as could be procured. Statistical Accounts for the provinces of Assam, N.W. Provinces, Punjab and others followed.

Later British Period

During the turn of the century in 1905, Lord Curzon abolished the post of DG of Statistics, reorganized the department by separating out the statistical data collection jobs and constituting the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI & S). The year 1906 saw the first issue of the Indian Trade Journal. An important contribution to price statistics was a survey conducted in 1910 by Datta, Shirras & Gupta (1913). The book on Indian Finance and Banking by Shirras, who was the Director of Statistics with the government as well as a Fellow of the University of Calcutta contains very interesting data on exports and imports, the balance of trade, growth of a business, production of gold, silver, paper currency and details on banks for the period ranging in several cases from mid-1850's to 1918 (Shirras, 1919)

The Statistical System after Independence

It is only after the independence in 1947 that the country saw an urgent need for a statistical framework suitable for economic and social development. The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) was formed in 1951 to coordinate the statistical activities in independent India. The National Sample Survey (NSS) was created in 1950 as a multi-faceted fact-finding body. During 1961, the CSO and NSS were put under a full-fledged Department of Statistics.

 

Other Statistical Divisions and Activities in the Government

 

Among the other important statistical wings in the Government of India, the office of the Director-General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics is one of the oldest establishments. It continues to be responsible for commercial intelligence and foreign trade statistics.

The office of the Registrar General which was created in 1948 carries out its decennial Census Operations as well as Sample Registration System and publication of other demographic and vital statistics. The Labour Bureau set up in 1946 is responsible for the collection and dissemination of labour statistics and publication of consumer price indices. Apart from these departments at the centre and a host of others in various central ministries, the State Statistical Bureaus (SSB), which play the same role as the CSO at a state level, also collaborate with the NSSO in conducting multi-purpose surveys.

 

Perspective Planning Division

In 1955, Mahalanobis was appointed as a member of the Planning Commission. In order to carry out further studies on planning, he envisaged the need for a Perspective Planning Division (PPD) which was established next door to the Planning Commission in Delhi. One of the interesting aspects of the preparation of the draft of the Second Five Year Plan was the massive use of data collected by CSO and NSS. Over the years, ISI has made many more detailed and sophisticated studies of consumption and income elasticity but the link between planning and policy is less clear

 P.C. Mahalanobis and the Indian Statistical Institute

 The Early Period (1915-1931)

The first important work in Statistics in the modern sense to be undertaken in India was possibly the statistical analysis of examination results in Calcutta University. Seal, in 1917, as Chairman of the Committee for examination reforms in Calcutta University sought Mahalanobis's help in the above analysis. During the late twenties, Mahalanobis got involved in various directions of the growth of the new discipline of Statistics-the conceptual developments in multivariate anthropometric data analysis, the acceptance of sample surveys as a method of data collection as stressed by Kiaer (1895, 1897), Bowley (1906),) Jessen (1926among others, meteorological studies, crop cutting experiments to name a few. It is only natural that the 'Statistical Laboratory', which was being run as a 'workshop' at the Presidency College, Calcutta, should be given a status of an institution of research and higher learning. The Indian Statistical Institute was founded as a society on 17 December 1931. Sankhya, the Indian Journal of Statistics, was founded two years later.

The Second Period (1931-1950)

The second period is marked by the emergence of sample surveys, multivariate analysis and design of experiments as major statistical tools for practical work. They were also subjects for research at the cutting edge. Another notable feature of the period was the introduction of undergraduate and postgraduate courses in Statistics. Last but not least, training programmes and practices of Shewart's Statistical Quality Control were introduced during this period. D.B. Lahiri collaborated with Mahalanobis on the analysis of errors in Censuses and Surveys in the Indian context (Mahalanobis & Lahiri, 1961). During the mid-forties Mahalanobis foresaw the need for introducing Quality Control (QC) in Indian industries and later C.R. Rao also had been associated with the QC movement in India.

The fifties and Early Sixties

The substantial contributions of the Institute to theoretical and applied work, its training and promotional activities culminated in recognition by the Government of India. The parliament passed the Indian Statistical Institute Act, 1959 which declared the Institute as an "Institution of National Importance" and empowered it to award degrees and diplomas in Statistics.

Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI)

On the recommendation of the Royal Commission of Agriculture, a small Statistics section was set up in the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in 1929. The IARS, renamed as the Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI), has contributed significantly over the years to the fields of Experimental Designs, Sampling Methods, Statistical Genetics, Biostatistics, Forecasting Techniques, Statistical Ecology etc. under the guidance of Panse and Sukhatme

Statistics in some Indian Universities

The Department of Statistics of Calcutta University is the oldest in the country and one of the pioneering Departments in the world which introduced Statistics as a separate and full-fledged discipline and not as a part of Mathematics or Economics. In addition to offering a post-graduate course, the department carried on research activities right from the start. Other major Universities which have played a leading role in the area of Statistics are Universities of Madras, Mysore, Kerala, Patna, Guwahati, Andhra, Lucknow. Together the Indian Universities have produced some of the world's most well-known statisticians.

A Sequel: The Period After 1960

One of the reasons for the rapid growth of Statistics in India was the close interaction between the ISI and various technical wings of the Government of India. Many improvements in the preparation of the national Evolution of Statistics in India accounted by the CSO, and applications of Taguchi's methods to industry, mainly by the Division of Statistical Quality Control and Operations Research in the ISI took place during this period. India now has an Institute for Research in Medical Statistics and several active Departments of Biostatistics. India has also had a strong population studies programme, conducted by the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai and various Population Research Centres set up in certain Institutions and Universities. Significant new development has been the setting up of two centres in the ISI--the Policy Planning and Research Unit (PPRU) at ISI Delhi and Survey Research and Data Analysis Centre (SURDAC) at Calcutta to revive a close interaction between academia and government. The nineties have seen the impact of Information Technology on academia, government, business and industry. Significant innovation has been the use of Palm Top Computers (PTC) in the North Indian state of Haryana for the collection of socio-economic survey data besides the traditional data collection by investigators of the FOD of the NSSO. The apex national committee for Statistics, National Advisory Board on Statistics (NABS), was set up in September 1982 to provide technical guidance for policy issues concerning the development of Statistics.

Conclusion

 India had a long historical tradition of collection and use of various kinds of statistics. The system was strengthened during the British period. Nonetheless, the development in Statistics that took place between, say, 1930 and 1960 is quite remarkable. In Statistics, unlike other disciplines, India was not a late starter. Indeed, much of the development even in the United States came later. Only Britain had started earlier. This helped the creation of an Indian school of Statistics with its own mix of theory and applications.